From Norway to Italy, Europeans are getting jittery about immigration. It represents a potentially toxic issue in domestic politics – even in places like Spain or Ireland where public concern about the influx of foreigners has been buffered by high growth and low unemployment. Despite warnings from economists that Europe will need ever more migrants, polls show most see immigration as a problem to be solved, rather than an opportunity to be embraced.

In theory, the EU is supposed to support European governments to better manage immigration, asylum, border controls and crime. In the last year alone the European Commission has produced a raft of immigration proposals, now being debated by the member states. So what are the prospects for common European action on migration in 2008?

Our decision, your problem: Spain's 2005 amnesty for 750,000 illegal immigrants infuriated its northern neighbours. Photograph: Belga

The odds are not good. The ever-ambitious Commissioner for Justice, Freedom and Security, Franco Frattini, wants the member states to adopt a “blue card” scheme to attract more of the “right kind” of immigrant – highly skilled workers with existing job offers – to the EU. Currently only 5 percent of immigrants to the EU are highly skilled and research suggests Europe will need 20 million more to fill jobs left vacant by a rapidly ageing domestic population in the next two decades.

A pale imitation of the US green card, under Frattini’s proposal member states would grant successful blue card applicants a two-year residency, with the possibility to subsequently apply for work elsewhere in the EU. The job offered would have to be paid at three times the minimum wage and guaranteed for at least one year. Brussels would get to set the admission rules as well as ensure cardholders enjoyed the same healthcare, taxes and pension rights as their EU counterparts.

The proposal is catchy and media-friendly. Frattini is not looking for powers to actually decide who gets a work permit; national governments would still set the specific numbers of economic immigrants entering their territory. Still, member states view the idea coldly. Britain, for example, has spent years developing an expensive points-based system, like those in Canada and Australia, to allocate work visas to migrants based on different tiers of qualifications.

With that system coming online in 2008, London will take some persuading that the blue card scheme is a feasible add-on. Ireland and Denmark are also likely to stand aloof. And Germany and Austria have no intention of giving the Commission a......