Why Europa no longer rules the waves

Up to the challenge? The British naval fleet, like the French, is close to being outclassed by those of emerging powers. Photograph: Royal Navy

In December 2008, the European Union launched its most important military expedition to date, off the coast of Somalia. With the steady rise of pirate activity over the previous year, European shipping in the Gulf of Aden has been under mounting threat. Yet although the suppression of piracy is an important mission, it may represent only the tip of a far larger iceberg – one that Europeans are currently unable to deal with.

All the major powers are now expanding their influence along the Eurasian coastal zone, a region rich in energy, raw materials and fertile land. Within this space, China, India, Russia and the United States have begun to reorient their foreign and security policies. Unfortunately, the EU’s main trade route – until now threatened only by pirates – ploughs through this littoral space and connects Europeans to the energy supplies of the Middle East and the manufacturing centres of China, South Korea and Japan. It carries around a quarter of global maritime commerce, making it the most important trade line on Earth.

The region stretching from the Suez Canal to the city of Shanghai – and perhaps as far as Seoul – is therefore particularly critical to Europeans. But the same space is important to others too. With a rapidly growing navy, China has put together a “string of pearls” – naval stations, harbours and land-based infrastructure – to extend its maritime reach into the Indian Ocean, East Africa and the Middle East. Russia also has plans to build new naval stations around the Mediterranean and the Middle East, potentially in Syria and Yemen.

India has been busily kitting out its fleet with new aircraft carriers, submarines and stealth destroyers, which it claims are needed to complete its “manifest destiny” to control the Indian Ocean. South Korea and Japan are building a new generation of warships, which will allow both to operate more assertively and further from home. And the United States has undertaken a “global posture review” since 2004, where it has repositioned many of its naval assets, away from Europe, and towards East Asia.

So as the world becomes more multipolar, Eurasia will grow ever more important. Stretching from western Europe to east Asia, and from the Arctic to the Arabian Sea, this landmass is the world’s geographical hub. Any power dominant in Eurasia would automatically gain command over much of the Middle East and Africa, as well as – critically – over the Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Yet Europeans have ignored these developments, choosing instead to focus on “human security” and peacekeeping. Indeed, the trajectory of European naval power has remained steadily downward, even with the rise of piracy in the Gulf of Aden. Disjointed and top-heavy, with a hotchpotch of frigates and corvettes, European navies are a far cry from what they once were. Starved of resources and languishing on the second tier of strategic priorities, even the French and British fleets are close to being outclassed and outgunned by previously inferior navies elsewhere.

If Europeans continue to ignore the new realities, they face a future of dependency on others’ goodwill. Europeans must therefore refocus their attention on the sea and on the global balance of maritime power. They must also undertake greater cooperation – indeed, even naval integration. And the EU provides the strongest vehicle for Europeans to band together and remain relevant.

So what should be done? First, the EU needs to rethink certain parts of its foreign and security policy, and concentrate more on the affairs of the Eurasian coastal zone. Europeans need to build up strong partnerships with countries in key geopolitical nodes – like India, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore – in order to keep the peace in the region most likely to experience competition and disorder in the years ahead. This will allow the EU to prevent conflict and insecurity from threatening key European interests throughout the area.

Second, the EU should take part and lead more naval operations along its principal maritime trade route, particularly in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. The EU mission to quash piracy in the Gulf of Aden is just the beginning, and Europeans must step up their visibility throughout all the maritime approaches to European home waters. Increasingly, port calls, anti-piracy missions and surveillance and presence operations will all be required to uphold the peace.

Third, a European strategic defence review is needed to allow for the construction of common warship classes, which should replace the costly and inefficient mishmash of vessels currently operated by European fleets. An integrated EU coastguard should be put together to free up naval vessels in the Baltic and Mediterranean for use elsewhere. And ultimately, standing EU naval forces equipped with aircraft carriers and amphibious platforms for power projection into troublesome areas should also be developed and built.

Europeans were once the greatest seafarers on the planet and their ships guarded the seven seas. As the world becomes increasingly multipolar, sea power will again be required to undergird European interests around the coasts of Eurasia – and in the wider world. As such, European maritime reforms and enhanced naval integration cannot come a moment too soon.